Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.131473 3.372677 3.644582 3.978928 4.386755 4.879499 5.539985
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.815314 3.121061 3.489812 3.983071 4.654701 5.592851 7.141779
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.615896 2.950650 3.371620 3.967060 4.845215 6.227314 9.039556
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.442563 2.784452 3.225748 3.873082 4.882241 6.622661 10.919274
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.369699 2.735366 3.222369 3.970006 5.224575 7.700032 16.536724
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.241106 2.600165 3.084605 3.842893 5.158050 7.930755 20.555501
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.127748 2.477194 2.952851 3.707476 5.047372 8.016083 25.022388
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.048898 2.395914 2.873643 3.644928 5.057941 8.415442 38.602621
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.022820 2.384747 2.893650 3.743228 5.400067 9.996096 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.015110 2.397879 2.949459 3.908070 5.933603 13.062657 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.973855 2.360410 2.924832 3.927800 6.148977 15.407328 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.939941 2.331445 2.910810 3.964405 6.420031 19.197764 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.861320 2.236205 2.790469 3.796820 6.133946 18.087528 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.823209 2.199022 2.760595 3.799406 6.317679 22.498742 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.784778 2.159462 2.724175 3.784918 6.452085 28.371796 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.735518 2.101827 2.655335 3.699835 6.355879 30.239977 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.722414 2.097329 2.672375 3.787581 6.826572 73.339721 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.673330 2.036871 2.593953 3.672455 6.598210 65.021600 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.625070 1.976470 2.513703 3.549354 6.327997 52.088899 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.591138 1.936848 2.466625 3.492336 6.275367 62.038891 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.585147 1.939160 2.489186 3.581901 6.759428 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.588665 1.955933 2.536882 3.731537 7.572211 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.570721 1.938869 2.525501 3.749401 7.865207 NaN NaN